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Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Netanya — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Bnei Sakhnin
Bnei Sakhnin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
12/2/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 6Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin37%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Netanya36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bnei Sakhnin
1.27
Maccabi Netanya
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 118 away

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin
0.93
Maccabi Netanya
1.25

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin
1.26
Maccabi Netanya
1.61

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par
Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Maccabi Netanya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw
64%
Bnei Sakhnin or Maccabi Netanya
73%
Draw or Maccabi Netanya
63%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals
72%
Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals
36%
Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)
51%
Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.27

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more
37%
level
27%
Maccabi Netanya scores more
36%

Bnei Sakhnin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bnei Sakhnin vs Maccabi Netanya

Bnei Sakhnin and Maccabi Netanya drew 1-1 in Ligat Ha'al on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Doha Stadium in Sakhnin.