Blue Goose 0–1 Texas United: Result & Stats

Blue Goose

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Texas United

5/22/2022

USL League Two · Round 9Mayo Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Blue Goose15%

×Draw16%

Texas United70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blue GooseExpected goals in this matchTexas United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.97

Blue Goose

1.33

Texas United

2.97

Texas United creates 123% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

1.11

creates per match

2.50

3.44

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Blue Goose

1.11

Texas United

2.50

allows per match

Blue Goose

3.44

Texas United

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blue Goose+0.00on par

Texas United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blue Goose ↓

Texas United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Blue Goose or draw

30%

Blue Goose or Texas United

84%

Draw or Texas United

85%

Winning margin

Blue Goose wins by 2+

6%

Texas United wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Blue Goose 1+ goals

74%

Blue Goose 2+ goals

38%

Blue Goose 3+ goals

15%

Texas United 1+ goals

95%

Texas United 2+ goals

79%

Texas United 3+ goals

56%

Draw no bet

Blue Goose (draw refunded)

17%

Texas United (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blue Goose at home — creates 1.11, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

Texas United away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blue Goose attack 1.11 + Texas United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.33

Texas United attack 2.50 + Blue Goose defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Blue Goose scores more

15%

level

16%

Texas United scores more

70%

Texas United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Texas United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff