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Blooming vs Independiente Petrolero — Primera División 2026

Blooming
Blooming
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Independiente Petrolero
Independiente Petrolero
7/27/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 7Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Blooming53%
×Draw23%
Independiente Petrolero24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blooming
1.87
Independiente Petrolero
1.20

Blooming creates 56% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 91 away

creates per match

Blooming
1.81
Independiente Petrolero
1.26

allows per match

Blooming
1.14
Independiente Petrolero
1.93

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par
Independiente Petrolero+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Independiente Petrolero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Blooming or draw
76%
Blooming or Independiente Petrolero
77%
Draw or Independiente Petrolero
47%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+
30%
Independiente Petrolero wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals
85%
Blooming 2+ goals
56%
Blooming 3+ goals
29%
Independiente Petrolero 1+ goals
70%
Independiente Petrolero 2+ goals
34%
Independiente Petrolero 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)
68%
Independiente Petrolero (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.14 · 127 matches

Independiente Petrolero away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.93 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + Independiente Petrolero defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.87

Independiente Petrolero attack 1.26 + Blooming defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Blooming scores more
53%
level
23%
Independiente Petrolero scores more
24%

Blooming at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Blooming 2–1 Independiente Petrolero

Blooming beat Independiente Petrolero 2-1 in Primera División on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas in Santa Cruz de la Sierra.