Blooming 2–1 Always Ready: Result & Stats

Blooming

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Always Ready

12/7/2023

Primera División · Round 34Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Blooming46%

×Draw24%

Always Ready30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BloomingExpected goals in this matchAlways Ready

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.31

Blooming

1.66

Always Ready

1.31

Blooming creates 27% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

1.81

creates per match

1.50

1.13

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Blooming

1.81

Always Ready

1.50

allows per match

Blooming

1.13

Always Ready

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blooming+0.00on par

Always Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blooming ↓

Always Ready →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Blooming or draw

70%

Blooming or Always Ready

76%

Draw or Always Ready

54%

Winning margin

Blooming wins by 2+

24%

Always Ready wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blooming 1+ goals

81%

Blooming 2+ goals

49%

Blooming 3+ goals

23%

Always Ready 1+ goals

73%

Always Ready 2+ goals

38%

Always Ready 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Blooming (draw refunded)

60%

Always Ready (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blooming at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 129 matches

Always Ready away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.51 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blooming attack 1.81 + Always Ready defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Always Ready attack 1.50 + Blooming defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Blooming scores more

46%

level

24%

Always Ready scores more

30%

Blooming at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Blooming will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff