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Blessing vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
1 – 0
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
6/9/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Blessing49%
×Draw28%
Lubumbashi Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
1.32
Lubumbashi Sport
0.80

Blessing creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 85 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
77%
Blessing or Lubumbashi Sport
72%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
51%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
23%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
73%
Blessing 2+ goals
38%
Blessing 3+ goals
15%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
55%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
19%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
68%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Blessing scores more
49%
level
28%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
23%

Blessing at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Blessing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Blessing 1–0 Lubumbashi Sport

Blessing beat Lubumbashi Sport 1-0 in Ligue 1 on June 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.