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Blessing vs Groupe Bazano — Ligue 1 2019

Blessing
Blessing
FT
3 – 0
Groupe Bazano
Groupe Bazano
10/23/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade Dominique Diur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Blessing47%
×Draw30%
Groupe Bazano23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blessing
1.23
Groupe Bazano
0.77

Blessing creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 73 away

creates per match

Blessing
1.19
Groupe Bazano
0.70

allows per match

Blessing
0.84
Groupe Bazano
1.27

finishing

Blessing+0.00on par
Groupe Bazano+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blessing ↓

Groupe Bazano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Blessing or draw
77%
Blessing or Groupe Bazano
70%
Draw or Groupe Bazano
53%

Winning margin

Blessing wins by 2+
21%
Groupe Bazano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Blessing 1+ goals
71%
Blessing 2+ goals
35%
Blessing 3+ goals
13%
Groupe Bazano 1+ goals
54%
Groupe Bazano 2+ goals
18%
Groupe Bazano 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Blessing (draw refunded)
67%
Groupe Bazano (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blessing at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Groupe Bazano away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.27 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blessing attack 1.19 + Groupe Bazano defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Groupe Bazano attack 0.70 + Blessing defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blessing scores more
47%
level
30%
Groupe Bazano scores more
23%

Blessing at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blessing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Blessing 3–0 Groupe Bazano

Blessing beat Groupe Bazano 3-0 in Ligue 1 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Dominique Diur in Kolwezi.