Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2–2 Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

FT

2 – 2

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

10/31/2020

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 10Sportplatz Zorbau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau41%

×Draw23%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß ZorbauExpected goals in this matchOberlausitz Neugersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.57

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.71

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

1.53

creates per match

0.92

2.23

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

1.53

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

0.92

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau

2.23

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Zorbau ↓

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or draw

64%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

77%

Draw or Oberlausitz Neugersdorf

59%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+

21%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals

82%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals

51%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals

24%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 1+ goals

79%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 2+ goals

46%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)

54%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.23 · 53 matches

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.89 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.53 + Oberlausitz Neugersdorf defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf attack 0.92 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more

41%

level

23%

Oberlausitz Neugersdorf scores more

36%

Blau-Weiß Zorbau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Zorbau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff