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Blansko vs Slovan Rosice — 3. liga - MSFL 2019

Blansko
Blansko
CANC
14:30
Slovan Rosice
Slovan Rosice
5/3/20203. liga - MSFL3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 25Stadion na Údolní

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Blansko40%
×Draw24%
Slovan Rosice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blansko
1.57
Slovan Rosice
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

creates per match

Blansko
1.91
Slovan Rosice
1.27

allows per match

Blansko
1.67
Slovan Rosice
1.24

finishing

Blansko+0.00on par
Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blansko ↓

Slovan Rosice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Blansko or draw
64%
Blansko or Slovan Rosice
76%
Draw or Slovan Rosice
60%

Winning margin

Blansko wins by 2+
20%
Slovan Rosice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Blansko 1+ goals
79%
Blansko 2+ goals
46%
Blansko 3+ goals
21%
Slovan Rosice 1+ goals
77%
Slovan Rosice 2+ goals
43%
Slovan Rosice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Blansko (draw refunded)
53%
Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blansko at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.67 · 78 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blansko attack 1.91 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Blansko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Blansko scores more
40%
level
24%
Slovan Rosice scores more
36%

Blansko at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Blansko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blansko face Slovan Rosice (3. liga - MSFL)

3. liga - MSFL returns with Blansko hosting Slovan Rosice. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blansko host Slovan Rosice at Stadion na Údolní.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.