Blacktown City 6–3 APIA Leichhardt Tigers

Blacktown City

FT

6 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

2/17/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 1Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Blacktown City43%

×Draw23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blacktown CityExpected goals in this matchAPIA Leichhardt Tigers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.55

Blacktown City

1.76

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.55

Blacktown City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

1.92

creates per match

1.96

1.15

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Blacktown City

1.92

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.96

allows per match

Blacktown City

1.15

APIA Leichhardt Tigers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blacktown City+0.00on par

APIA Leichhardt Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown City ↓

APIA Leichhardt Tigers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Blacktown City or draw

66%

Blacktown City or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

77%

Draw or APIA Leichhardt Tigers

57%

Winning margin

Blacktown City wins by 2+

23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Blacktown City 1+ goals

83%

Blacktown City 2+ goals

52%

Blacktown City 3+ goals

26%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 1+ goals

79%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 2+ goals

46%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Blacktown City (draw refunded)

56%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown City at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 96 matches

APIA Leichhardt Tigers away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.60 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown City attack 1.92 + APIA Leichhardt Tigers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.76

APIA Leichhardt Tigers attack 1.96 + Blacktown City defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Blacktown City scores more

43%

level

23%

APIA Leichhardt Tigers scores more

34%

Blacktown City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff