Blackpool vs Sheffield Wednesday

Blackpool

Preview

15:00

Sheffield Wednesday

1/30/2027

League One · Round 28Bloomfield Road

Big match

41%

Blackpool

model favours

41%26%33%

Sheffield Wednesday score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Blackpool41%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Wednesday33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.20

Blackpool

1.37

Sheffield Wednesday

1.20

Blackpool creates 14% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 53 away

1.53

creates per match

1.30

1.09

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Sheffield Wednesday

1.30

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Sheffield Wednesday

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

67%

Blackpool or Sheffield Wednesday

74%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

59%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

19%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

75%

Blackpool 2+ goals

40%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

34%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

55%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.30 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackpool scores more

41%

level

26%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

33%

Blackpool at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in only 30% of Sheffield Wednesday’s matches
Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Blackpool

Balanced

Sheffield Wednesday

Balanced

47%Possession50%

71%Pass accuracy69%

11.0ShotsBiggest gap12.8

1.19xG—

BlackpoolSheffield Wednesday

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3

Blackpool

3

Draws

4

Sheffield Wednesday

Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 10%

0–10–10–10–22–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Blackpool

LWWWW

Wednesday

WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff