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Blackpool vs Northampton — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
J. Yates 90+2'
M. Ekpiteta 12'
2/2/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Blackpool55%
×Draw22%
Northampton23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
2.00
Northampton
1.24

Blackpool creates 61% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.49
Northampton
0.85

allows per match

Blackpool
1.63
Northampton
2.52

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less
Northampton-0.52scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
77%
Blackpool or Northampton
78%
Draw or Northampton
45%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
32%
Northampton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
86%
Blackpool 2+ goals
59%
Blackpool 3+ goals
32%
Northampton 1+ goals
71%
Northampton 2+ goals
35%
Northampton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
70%
Northampton (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Northampton away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.52 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Northampton defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.00

Northampton attack 0.85 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Blackpool scores more
55%
level
22%
Northampton scores more
23%

Blackpool at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. EkpitetaBlackpoolBlackpool · D
7.9

Match Events

12'
M. Ekpiteta
65'
C. Chukwuemeka← R. Watson
65'
S. McWilliams← S. Hoskins
68'
Caleb Chukwuemeka
72'
D. Mitchell← K. Dougall
78'
Shaun McWilliams
80'
O. Turton← E. Simms
84'
D. Rose← F. Horsfall
84'
R. Korboa← J. Sowerby
89'
Bryn Morris
90'
Joseph Mills
90+2'
J. Yates

Possession

53%Blackpool

Shots

17Blackpool

Pass accuracy

50%Blackpool

Statistics

BlackpoolNorthampton
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots8
4Corners5
10Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots8
5On Target3
9Off Target1
3Blocked4
7Inside Box4
10Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
376Total Passes326
253Accurate Passes214
67%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
0Yellow Cards4
0Offsides4

League One: Blackpool 2–0 Northampton

Blackpool beat Northampton 2-0 in League One on February 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Ekpiteta (12'), J. Yates (90+2').

Blackpool controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Bloomfield Road in Blackpool, Lancashire.