Blackpool 2–3 Lincoln: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

D. Mitchell 82'

C. Hamilton 17'

L. Montsma 88'

J. Grant 85' (pen), 25' (pen)

10/3/2020

League One · Round 4Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool33%

×Draw25%

Lincoln42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.50

Blackpool

1.31

Lincoln

1.50

Lincoln creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.49

creates per match

1.38

1.63

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Blackpool

1.49

Lincoln

1.38

allows per match

Blackpool

1.63

Lincoln

1.13

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less

Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

58%

Blackpool or Lincoln

75%

Draw or Lincoln

67%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

14%

Lincoln wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

73%

Blackpool 2+ goals

38%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Lincoln 1+ goals

78%

Lincoln 2+ goals

44%

Lincoln 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

44%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackpool scores more

33%

level

25%

Lincoln scores more

42%

Lincoln at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Grant

Lincoln · F

8.9

Match Events

17'

C. Hamilton↳ J. Yates

25'

J. GrantPenalty

46'

A. Edun← S. Roughan

60'

Beryly Lubala

62'

L. Garbutt← B. Lubala

64'

H. Anderson← C. McGrandles

71'

O. Šarkić← J. Yates

79'

M. Williams← K. Anderson

81'

Jorge Grant

82'

D. Mitchell↳ M. Ekpiteta

84'

James Husband

85'

J. GrantPenalty

88'

L. Montsma↳ A. Jackson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolLincoln

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots12

6Corners6

18Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots12

3On Target7

8Off Target4

6Blocked1

10Inside Box10

7Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

408Total Passes393

325Accurate Passes299

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides2