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Blackpool vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Blackpool
Blackpool
Preview
15:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
1/16/2027League OneLeague One · Round 25Bloomfield Road
Big match
44%
Blackpool
model favours
44%24%32%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Blackpool44%
×Draw24%
Leyton Orient32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackpool
1.64
Leyton Orient
1.35

Blackpool creates 21% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Blackpool
1.49
Leyton Orient
1.07

allows per match

Blackpool
1.63
Leyton Orient
1.78

finishing

Blackpool-0.11scores less
Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw
68%
Blackpool or Leyton Orient
76%
Draw or Leyton Orient
56%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+
23%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals
81%
Blackpool 2+ goals
49%
Blackpool 3+ goals
23%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
74%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
39%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)
58%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.49 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.64

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + Blackpool defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackpool scores more
44%
level
24%
Leyton Orient scores more
32%

Blackpool at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Blackpool
Balanced
Leyton Orient
Balanced
47%PossessionBiggest gap53%
71%Pass accuracy72%
11.0Shots11.3
1.19xG1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackpoolLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Blackpool
2
Draws
3
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 33%
1–01–11–20–30–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackpool
LWWWW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackpool vs Leyton Orient — Match Preview

Blackpool face Leyton Orient on January 16, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blackpool host Leyton Orient at Bloomfield Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.