Blackpool 0–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Blackpool

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

C. Aneke 83'

10/20/2020

League One · Round 7Bloomfield Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 133+ matches

Blackpool42%

×Draw27%

Charlton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackpoolExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.16

Blackpool

1.39

Charlton

1.16

Blackpool creates 20% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 143 away

1.53

creates per match

1.22

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Blackpool

1.53

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Blackpool

1.09

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blackpool+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackpool ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackpool or draw

69%

Blackpool or Charlton

73%

Draw or Charlton

58%

Winning margin

Blackpool wins by 2+

20%

Charlton wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Blackpool 1+ goals

75%

Blackpool 2+ goals

40%

Blackpool 3+ goals

16%

Charlton 1+ goals

69%

Charlton 2+ goals

32%

Charlton 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Blackpool (draw refunded)

57%

Charlton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackpool at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 133 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackpool attack 1.53 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Charlton attack 1.22 + Blackpool defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Blackpool scores more

42%

level

27%

Charlton scores more

31%

Blackpool at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Blackpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. Inniss

Charlton · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

4'

5'

39'

39'

46'

I. Maatsen← D. Pratley

61'

J. Yates← G. Madine

64'

C. Aneke← O. Bogle

65'

Ben Watson

68'

B. Lubala← B. Woodburn

76'

P. Smyth← C. Washington

83'

C. Aneke↳ A. Doughty

90'

Ben Amos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackpoolCharlton

Overview

40%Possession60%

8Total Shots14

4Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots14

1On Target1

1Off Target11

6Blocked2

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

279Total Passes398

172Accurate Passes324

62%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls16

0Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides4