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Blackburn vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wolves
Wolves
8/13/2011Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Ewood Park (Blackburn)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Blackburn36%
×Draw27%
Wolves37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.23
Wolves
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 118 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.00
Wolves
0.86

allows per match

Blackburn
1.67
Wolves
1.45

finishing

Blackburn+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
63%
Blackburn or Wolves
73%
Draw or Wolves
64%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
15%
Wolves wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
71%
Blackburn 2+ goals
35%
Blackburn 3+ goals
13%
Wolves 1+ goals
72%
Wolves 2+ goals
36%
Wolves 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
49%
Wolves (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.45 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wolves attack 0.86 + Blackburn defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Blackburn scores more
36%
level
27%
Wolves scores more
37%

Wolves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Blackburn 1–2 Wolves

Wolves beat Blackburn 2-1 in Premier League on August 13, 2011.

The match was played at Ewood Park (Blackburn).