Blackburn 1–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

Daniel Ayala 89'

2/18/2023

Championship · Round 33Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 53+ matches

Blackburn45%

×Draw26%

Swansea29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Blackburn

1.43

Swansea

1.10

Blackburn creates 30% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

1.10

1.11

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Swansea

1.10

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Swansea

1.52

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Swansea-0.02on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

71%

Blackburn or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

55%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Swansea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

76%

Blackburn 2+ goals

42%

Blackburn 3+ goals

17%

Swansea 1+ goals

67%

Swansea 2+ goals

30%

Swansea 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

61%

Swansea (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.52 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Swansea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Swansea attack 1.10 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Blackburn scores more

45%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

29%

Blackburn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

R. Manning

Swansea · M

8.6

Match Events

14'

45'

52'

59'

72'

73'

B. Dack← S. Gallagher

78'

R. Hedges← B. Brereton

86'

S. Szmodics← B. Dack

89'

Daniel Ayala↳ D. Hyam

90+5'

Tyrhys Dolan

90+4'

Daniel Ayala

90'

M. Whittaker← J. Fulton

90'

M. Sorinola← H. Darling

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnSwansea

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots10

6Corners3

10Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots10

3On Target2

4Off Target6

1Blocked2

8Inside Box9

0Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

474Total Passes493

403Accurate Passes413

85%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2