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Blackburn vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Swansea
Swansea
B. Dack 37'
A. Ayew 41' (pen)
3/9/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Blackburn44%
×Draw27%
Swansea29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.41
Swansea
1.10

Blackburn creates 28% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
Swansea
1.10

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
Swansea
1.48

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
71%
Blackburn or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
21%
Swansea wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
76%
Blackburn 2+ goals
41%
Blackburn 3+ goals
17%
Swansea 1+ goals
67%
Swansea 2+ goals
30%
Swansea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
60%
Swansea (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Swansea attack 1.10 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more
44%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
29%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
T. TrybullBlackburnBlackburn · M
8.0

Match Events

37'
B. Dack↳ T. Trybull
41'
A. AyewPenalty
46'
J. Latibeaudiere← M. Guehi
53'
Joe Rankin-Costello
65'
Y. Dhanda← J. Fulton
65'
K. Smith← C. Hourihane
68'
Ben Cabango
70'
H. Elliott← S. Gallagher
76'
R. Nyambe← J. Rankin-Costello
81'
W. Routledge← J. Lowe
86'
J. Rothwell← B. Dack
86'
L. Travis← T. Trybull

Possession

58%Blackburn

Shots

15Blackburn

Pass accuracy

54%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnSwansea
Overview
58%Possession42%
15Total Shots10
5Corners3
12Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots10
4On Target1
6Off Target5
5Blocked4
9Inside Box5
6Outside Box5
Passing
58%Possession42%
438Total Passes299
319Accurate Passes184
73%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Swansea

Blackburn and Swansea drew 1-1 in Championship on March 9, 2021.

Goals: B. Dack (37'), A. Ayew (41' pen).

Blackburn controlled possession (58%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.