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Blackburn vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
14:00
Southampton
Southampton
4/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Ewood Park
38%
Blackburn
model favours
38%26%36%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 43+ matches

Blackburn38%
×Draw26%
Southampton36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.33
Southampton
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 43 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Southampton
1.52

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Southampton
1.34

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Southampton+0.06on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
64%
Blackburn or Southampton
74%
Draw or Southampton
62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
17%
Southampton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
74%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
15%
Southampton 1+ goals
72%
Southampton 2+ goals
37%
Southampton 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
51%
Southampton (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.34 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Southampton defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Southampton attack 1.52 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more
38%
level
26%
Southampton scores more
36%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (60% and 82% over 2.5)
  • Blackburn sit 22, Southampton 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Balanced
Southampton
Possession-dominant
50%Possession60%
75%Pass accuracy86%
11.1Shots14.3
1.16xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnSouthampton

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Blackburn
1
Draws
2
Southampton
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 25%
0–32–10–00–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
LWWDL
Southampton
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face Southampton (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting Southampton. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host Southampton at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.