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Blackburn vs QPR — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
A. Armstrong 90+6', 73'
B. Brereton 50'
L. Dykes 61' (pen)
11/7/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Blackburn44%
×Draw28%
QPR27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.29
QPR
0.95

Blackburn creates 36% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 59 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.33
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Blackburn
1.11
QPR
1.26

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
73%
Blackburn or QPR
72%
Draw or QPR
56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
20%
QPR wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
37%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%
QPR 1+ goals
61%
QPR 2+ goals
25%
QPR 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
62%
QPR (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

QPR attack 0.78 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more
44%
level
28%
QPR scores more
27%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
A. ArmstrongBlackburnBlackburn · F
8.6

Match Events

5'
J. Buckley← C. Evans
9'
Todd Kane
23'
Robert Dickie
46'
C. Willock← A. Adomah
46'
O. Kakay← D. Ball
50'
B. Brereton↳ D. Lenihan
61'
L. DykesPenalty
65'
Bradley Johnson
67'
M. Bonne← L. Dykes
73'
A. Armstrong↳ H. Elliott
82'
S. Gallagher← B. Brereton
90'
Macauley Bonne
90+3'
T. Dolan← H. Elliott
90+6'
A. Armstrong

Possession

51%Blackburn

Shots

17Blackburn

Pass accuracy

51%Blackburn

Statistics

BlackburnQPR
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots11
12Corners7
10Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots11
9On Target4
2Off Target4
6Blocked3
16Inside Box7
1Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
423Total Passes396
327Accurate Passes290
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
5Offsides0

Blackburn 3 – 1 QPR

Blackburn beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on November 7, 2020.

Goals: B. Brereton (50'), L. Dykes (61' pen), A. Armstrong (73', 90+6').

Blackburn controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.