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Blackburn vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
14:00
Millwall
Millwall
9/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Ewood Park
Big match
39%
Blackburn
model favours
39%27%34%

Blackburn sit 22, Millwall 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Blackburn39%
×Draw27%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.31
Millwall
1.19

Blackburn creates 10% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.17
Millwall
1.39

allows per match

Blackburn
1.00
Millwall
1.46

finishing

Blackburn-0.34scores less
Millwall-0.26scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
66%
Blackburn or Millwall
73%
Draw or Millwall
61%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
18%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
73%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%
Millwall 1+ goals
70%
Millwall 2+ goals
33%
Millwall 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
54%
Millwall (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 12 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.46 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.17 + Millwall defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Millwall attack 1.39 + Blackburn defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Blackburn scores more
39%
level
27%
Millwall scores more
34%

Blackburn at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Blackburn play Defensively solid, Millwall Direct / counter-attacking
  • Blackburn fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Defensively solid
Millwall
Direct / counter-attacking
51%Possession45%
75%Pass accuracy69%
10.4ShotsBiggest gap12.2
1.31xG1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnMillwall

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Blackburn
1
Draws
1
Millwall
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
2–12–04–10–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
DLWDL
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face Millwall (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting Millwall. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host Millwall at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.