Blackburn 2–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

B. Brereton 63'

T. Dolan 57'

J. Cooper 75'

10/1/2022

Championship · Round 12Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Blackburn41%

×Draw27%

Millwall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.11

Blackburn

1.32

Millwall

1.11

Blackburn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Blackburn

1.07

Millwall

1.33

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

59%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Millwall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

73%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

30%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Millwall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 58 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.33 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Millwall attack 1.15 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackburn scores more

41%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

31%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

T. Morton

Blackburn · M

7.5

Match Events

57'

T. Dolan

63'

B. Brereton

64'

G. Hirst← S. Gallagher

65'

S. Szmodics← T. Dolan

68'

A. Voglsammer← G. Honeyman

68'

G. Evans← B. Mitchell

68'

T. Burey← C. Cresswell

75'

Tyler Morton

75'

J. Cooper↳ T. Burey

79'

H. Carter← R. Hedges

79'

G. Saville← C. Styles

90'

B. Dack← B. Brereton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnMillwall

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots10

4Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots10

4On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked1

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

536Total Passes403

432Accurate Passes297

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides1