Blackburn 0–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

3/8/2022

Championship · Round 33Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Blackburn41%

×Draw27%

Millwall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.12

Blackburn

1.33

Millwall

1.12

Blackburn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Millwall

1.33

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

59%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Millwall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

31%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Millwall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Millwall attack 1.12 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackburn scores more

41%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

31%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Cooper

Millwall · D

7.5

Match Events

41'

46'

57'

67'

73'

77'

77'

R. Hedges← J. Buckley

84'

J. Vale← S. Gallagher

84'

M. Bennett← B. Afobe

90'

Jan Paul van Hecke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnMillwall

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots0

10Corners2

3Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots0

3On Target0

6Off Target0

3Blocked0

8Inside Box0

4Outside Box0

Passing

56%Possession44%

477Total Passes383

388Accurate Passes290

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

3Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Millwall

Blackburn and Millwall drew 0-0 in Championship on March 8, 2022.

Blackburn controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 0.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Millwall