Blackburn 2–1 Millwall: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Millwall

A. Armstrong 90+1'

H. Elliott 25'

S. Malone 34'

12/2/2020

Championship · Round 15Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Blackburn41%

×Draw27%

Millwall31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.12

Blackburn

1.33

Millwall

1.12

Blackburn creates 19% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.33

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Millwall

1.33

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

69%

Blackburn or Millwall

73%

Draw or Millwall

59%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

19%

Millwall wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

38%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

31%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

57%

Millwall (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Millwall attack 1.12 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blackburn scores more

41%

level

27%

Millwall scores more

31%

Blackburn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Armstrong

Blackburn · F

8.2

Match Events

19'

Shaun Williams

25'

H. Elliott↳ A. Armstrong

34'

S. Malone↳ J. Wallace

57'

T. Dolan← B. Brereton

64'

Murray Wallace

73'

S. Downing← S. Gallagher

74'

J. Rothwell← L. Holtby

74'

J. Buckley← H. Elliott

78'

B. Thompson← J. Böðvarsson

78'

T. Bradshaw← T. Parrott

87'

R. Leonard← S. Williams

90+3'

T. Trybull← A. Armstrong

90+3'

M. Smith← R. Woods

90+3'

J. Skalák← M. Romeo

90+1'

A. Armstrong

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnMillwall

Overview

55%Possession45%

20Total Shots17

2Corners8

14Fouls13

Shots

20Total Shots17

4On Target5

6Off Target4

10Blocked8

9Inside Box11

11Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

484Total Passes375

369Accurate Passes257

76%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Championship: Blackburn 2–1 Millwall

Blackburn beat Millwall 2-1 in Championship on December 2, 2020.

Goals: H. Elliott (25'), S. Malone (34'), A. Armstrong (90+1').

Blackburn controlled possession (55%) and registered 20 shots to 17.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 2–1 Millwall