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Blackburn vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
14:00
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
8/22/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 2Ewood Park
Big match
38%
Blackburn
model favours
38%27%35%

Blackburn sit 22, Middlesbrough 5 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 57+ matches

Blackburn38%
×Draw27%
Middlesbrough35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.27
Middlesbrough
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 63 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Middlesbrough
1.37

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Middlesbrough
1.23

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
65%
Blackburn or Middlesbrough
73%
Draw or Middlesbrough
62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
17%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
72%
Blackburn 2+ goals
36%
Blackburn 3+ goals
14%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
70%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
34%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
52%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Middlesbrough defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more
38%
level
27%
Middlesbrough scores more
35%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged just 1.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Blackburn
Balanced
Middlesbrough
Possession-dominant
50%Possession56%
75%Pass accuracy83%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap14.4
1.16xG1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnMiddlesbrough

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Blackburn
3
Draws
2
Middlesbrough
Avg goals: 1.4BTTS: 30%
0–00–00–21–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
LWWDL
Middlesbrough
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough — Match Preview

Blackburn face Middlesbrough on August 22, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Blackburn host Middlesbrough at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.