Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

S. Szmodics 49', 31'

M. Crooks 55'

9/16/2023

Championship · Round 6Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Blackburn38%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Blackburn

1.29

Middlesbrough

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 65 away

1.33

creates per match

1.39

1.10

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Middlesbrough

1.39

allows per match

Blackburn

1.10

Middlesbrough

1.24

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

64%

Blackburn or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

37%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

71%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

36%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

51%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 59 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Blackburn defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more

38%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

36%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

S. Szmodics

Blackburn · M

9.2

Match Events

28'

Hayden Carter

31'

S. Szmodics↳ H. Carter

40'

Darragh Lenihan

49'

S. Szmodics↳ R. Hedges

55'

M. Crooks↳ M. Forss

59'

S. Telalović← S. Gallagher

59'

A. Moran← T. Dolan

69'

S. Silvera← A. Bangura

76'

J. Rankin-Costello← L. Travis

77'

87'

88'

88'

90+4'

H. Leonard← S. Szmodics

90+5'

J. Hill← A. Wharton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnMiddlesbrough

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots21

2.18Expected Goals (xG)2.56

5Corners9

11Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots21

8On Target6

5Off Target9

2Blocked6

7Inside Box13

8Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

589Total Passes489

502Accurate Passes416

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3