Blackburn 1–2 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Middlesbrough

R. Hedges 5'

R. McGree 56'

M. Forss 46'

12/29/2022

Championship · Round 25Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Blackburn38%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.22

Blackburn

1.27

Middlesbrough

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 64 away

1.31

creates per match

1.37

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Blackburn

1.31

Middlesbrough

1.37

allows per match

Blackburn

1.07

Middlesbrough

1.22

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.28scores less

Middlesbrough+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

65%

Blackburn or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

62%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

17%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

72%

Blackburn 2+ goals

36%

Blackburn 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

70%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

34%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

52%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.07 · 58 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Middlesbrough defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Blackburn defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Blackburn scores more

38%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

35%

Blackburn at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Forss

Middlesbrough · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

R. Hedges↳ J. Buckley

8'

46'

49'

50'

56'

66'

66'

67'

A. Mowatt← H. Hackney

71'

I. Jones← M. Forss

81'

Tommy Smith

90+4'

Dominic Hyam

90+1'

D. Watmore← R. McGree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnMiddlesbrough

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots11

1Corners7

8Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots11

5On Target4

3Off Target1

1Blocked6

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

490Total Passes595

413Accurate Passes517

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Blackburn 2-1 in Championship on December 29, 2022.

Goals: R. Hedges (5'), M. Forss (46'), R. McGree (56').

Middlesbrough controlled possession (55%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Middlesbrough