Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Blackburn vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Blackburn
Blackburn
Preview
15:00
Birmingham
Birmingham
12/26/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Ewood Park
Big match
44%
Blackburn
model favours
44%28%28%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Blackburn44%
×Draw28%
Birmingham28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blackburn
1.33
Birmingham
1.00

Blackburn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

creates per match

Blackburn
1.31
Birmingham
0.94

allows per match

Blackburn
1.06
Birmingham
1.36

finishing

Blackburn-0.27scores less
Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Birmingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw
72%
Blackburn or Birmingham
72%
Draw or Birmingham
56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+
21%
Birmingham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals
74%
Blackburn 2+ goals
38%
Blackburn 3+ goals
15%
Birmingham 1+ goals
63%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)
61%
Birmingham (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 57 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.36 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Blackburn defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more
44%
level
28%
Birmingham scores more
28%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Blackburn have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Blackburn sit 22, Birmingham 10 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Blackburn
Balanced
Birmingham
Balanced
50%Possession47%
75%Pass accuracy72%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap12.4
1.16xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BlackburnBirmingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Blackburn
0
Draws
3
Birmingham
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 50%
1–01–20–14–20–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Blackburn
LWWDL
Birmingham
WWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Blackburn face Birmingham (Championship)

Championship returns with Blackburn hosting Birmingham. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Blackburn host Birmingham at Ewood Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.