Blackburn 2–1 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Birmingham

A. Wharton 42'

S. Gallagher 17'

S. Hogan 80'

10/22/2022

Championship · Round 17Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Blackburn44%

×Draw27%

Birmingham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.02

Blackburn

1.35

Birmingham

1.02

Blackburn creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

1.33

creates per match

0.96

1.09

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Birmingham

0.96

allows per match

Blackburn

1.09

Birmingham

1.37

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Birmingham

73%

Draw or Birmingham

56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

21%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

39%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

64%

Birmingham 2+ goals

27%

Birmingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

61%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 60 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Birmingham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

Birmingham attack 0.96 + Blackburn defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more

44%

level

27%

Birmingham scores more

28%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Bacuna

Birmingham · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

S. Gallagher↳ T. Morton

42'

A. Wharton

48'

Dion Sanderson

61'

J. Garrett← A. Wharton

63'

H. Mejbri← K. Bielik

65'

A. Phillips← R. Hedges

75'

J. Graham← M. Colin

75'

J. Bellingham← T. Chong

75'

T. Deeney← G. Hall

75'

L. Jutkiewicz← H. Dean

80'

S. Hogan↳ L. Jutkiewicz

85'

J. Vale← B. Brereton

85'

T. Dolan← S. Gallagher

90+3'

Jack Vale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBirmingham

Overview

44%Possession56%

5Total Shots17

2Corners9

8Fouls6

Shots

5Total Shots17

3On Target6

2Off Target8

0Blocked3

5Inside Box12

0Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

404Total Passes507

325Accurate Passes418

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1