Blackburn 5–2 Birmingham: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Birmingham

A. Armstrong 85', 71', 27' (pen)

H. Elliott 83'

B. Brereton 45+1'

L. Jutkiewicz 50'

K. Pedersen 22'

5/8/2021

Championship · Round 46Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Blackburn44%

×Draw28%

Birmingham28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchBirmingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Blackburn

1.34

Birmingham

1.02

Blackburn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 34 away

1.33

creates per match

0.94

1.11

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Blackburn

1.33

Birmingham

0.94

allows per match

Blackburn

1.11

Birmingham

1.35

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.26scores less

Birmingham-0.23scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Birmingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

72%

Blackburn or Birmingham

72%

Draw or Birmingham

56%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

20%

Birmingham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

39%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Birmingham 1+ goals

64%

Birmingham 2+ goals

27%

Birmingham 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

61%

Birmingham (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 61 matches

Birmingham away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.33 + Birmingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Birmingham attack 0.94 + Blackburn defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Blackburn scores more

44%

level

28%

Birmingham scores more

28%

Blackburn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Armstrong

Blackburn · F

8.6

Match Events

22'

K. Pedersen

27'

Jonathan Leko

27'

A. ArmstrongPenalty

40'

Ryan Stirk

45+1'

B. Brereton↳ S. Gallagher

46'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Cosgrove

46'

A. Halilović← J. Leko

50'

L. Jutkiewicz↳ S. Seddon

58'

S. Downing← J. Davenport

58'

Daniel Ayala← T. Harwood-Bellis

58'

H. Elliott← S. Gallagher

67'

Kristian Pedersen

67'

T. Dolan← B. Brereton

71'

A. Armstrong↳ S. Downing

74'

C. Evans← J. Buckley

76'

R. McGree← R. Harper

79'

K. Simmonds← A. Miller

82'

San José← R. Stirk

83'

H. Elliott↳ C. Evans

85'

A. Armstrong↳ C. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnBirmingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots5

5Corners1

8Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots5

8On Target3

7Off Target1

3Blocked1

11Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

470Total Passes346

398Accurate Passes267

85%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

6Offsides3

Championship: Blackburn 5–2 Birmingham

Blackburn beat Birmingham 5-2 in Championship on May 8, 2021.

Goals: K. Pedersen (22'), A. Armstrong (27' pen, 71', 85'), B. Brereton (45+1'), L. Jutkiewicz (50'), H. Elliott (83').

Blackburn controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 5.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn, Lancashire.

Blackburn vs Birmingham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Blackburn 5–2 Birmingham