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Black Stars vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Black Stars
Black Stars
FT
1 – 0
Djoliba
Djoliba
2/8/2022Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 14Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Black Stars23%
×Draw29%
Djoliba48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Stars
0.77
Djoliba
1.26

Djoliba creates 64% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 95 away

creates per match

Black Stars
1.00
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Black Stars
1.14
Djoliba
0.54

finishing

Black Stars+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Stars ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Black Stars or draw
52%
Black Stars or Djoliba
71%
Draw or Djoliba
77%

Winning margin

Black Stars wins by 2+
7%
Djoliba wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Black Stars 1+ goals
54%
Black Stars 2+ goals
18%
Black Stars 3+ goals
4%
Djoliba 1+ goals
72%
Djoliba 2+ goals
36%
Djoliba 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Black Stars (draw refunded)
32%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Stars at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Stars attack 1.00 + Djoliba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.77

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Black Stars defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Black Stars scores more
23%
level
29%
Djoliba scores more
48%

Djoliba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Première Division: Black Stars 1–0 Djoliba

Black Stars beat Djoliba 1-0 in Première Division on February 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports Modibo Keïta in Bamako.