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BKMA vs West Armenia — Premier League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
West Armenia
West Armenia
9/20/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

BKMA48%
×Draw24%
West Armenia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.74
West Armenia
1.30

BKMA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 31 away

creates per match

BKMA
1.09
West Armenia
0.90

allows per match

BKMA
1.70
West Armenia
2.39

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
West Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

West Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
71%
BKMA or West Armenia
76%
Draw or West Armenia
52%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
26%
West Armenia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
82%
BKMA 2+ goals
52%
BKMA 3+ goals
25%
West Armenia 1+ goals
73%
West Armenia 2+ goals
37%
West Armenia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
62%
West Armenia (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 81 matches

West Armenia away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.09 + West Armenia defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.74

West Armenia attack 0.90 + BKMA defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BKMA scores more
48%
level
24%
West Armenia scores more
29%

BKMA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BKMA vs West Armenia

West Armenia beat BKMA 4-0 in Premier League on September 20, 2023.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.