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BKMA vs Noravank — First League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
3 – 0
Noravank
Noravank
11/2/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

BKMA55%
×Draw21%
Noravank24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
2.13
Noravank
1.35

BKMA creates 58% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 14 away

creates per match

BKMA
2.76
Noravank
1.71

allows per match

BKMA
1.00
Noravank
1.50

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
Noravank+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

Noravank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
76%
BKMA or Noravank
79%
Draw or Noravank
45%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
33%
Noravank wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
88%
BKMA 2+ goals
63%
BKMA 3+ goals
35%
Noravank 1+ goals
74%
Noravank 2+ goals
39%
Noravank 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
70%
Noravank (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 2.76, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

Noravank away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 2.76 + Noravank defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Noravank attack 1.71 + BKMA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

BKMA scores more
55%
level
21%
Noravank scores more
24%

BKMA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "BKMA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BKMA 3 – 0 Noravank

BKMA beat Noravank 3-0 in First League on November 2, 2020.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.