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BKMA vs FC Noah — Premier League 2019

BKMA
BKMA
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Noah
FC Noah
3/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Yerevan Football Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

BKMA28%
×Draw25%
FC Noah46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BKMA
1.15
FC Noah
1.54

FC Noah creates 34% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 105 away

creates per match

BKMA
1.09
FC Noah
1.39

allows per match

BKMA
1.70
FC Noah
1.20

finishing

BKMA+0.00on par
FC Noah+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BKMA ↓

FC Noah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

BKMA or draw
54%
BKMA or FC Noah
75%
Draw or FC Noah
72%

Winning margin

BKMA wins by 2+
11%
FC Noah wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

BKMA 1+ goals
68%
BKMA 2+ goals
32%
BKMA 3+ goals
11%
FC Noah 1+ goals
79%
FC Noah 2+ goals
45%
FC Noah 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

BKMA (draw refunded)
38%
FC Noah (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BKMA at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.70 · 81 matches

FC Noah away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.20 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BKMA attack 1.09 + FC Noah defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Noah attack 1.39 + BKMA defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

BKMA scores more
28%
level
25%
FC Noah scores more
46%

FC Noah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Noah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: BKMA 1–1 FC Noah

BKMA and FC Noah drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Yerevan Football Academy in Yerevan.