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BK Hacken vs Gais — Svenska Cupen 2019

BK Hacken
BK Hacken
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Gais
Gais
2/23/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Bravida Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

BK Hacken62%
×Draw21%
Gais17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BK Hacken
2.08
Gais
1.00

BK Hacken creates 108% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

BK Hacken
2.50
Gais
1.44

allows per match

BK Hacken
0.56
Gais
1.67

finishing

BK Hacken+0.00on par
Gais+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BK Hacken ↓

Gais →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BK Hacken or draw
83%
BK Hacken or Gais
79%
Draw or Gais
38%

Winning margin

BK Hacken wins by 2+
38%
Gais wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

BK Hacken 1+ goals
87%
BK Hacken 2+ goals
61%
BK Hacken 3+ goals
34%
Gais 1+ goals
63%
Gais 2+ goals
26%
Gais 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

BK Hacken (draw refunded)
78%
Gais (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BK Hacken at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Gais away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BK Hacken attack 2.50 + Gais defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gais attack 1.44 + BK Hacken defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

BK Hacken scores more
62%
level
21%
Gais scores more
17%

BK Hacken at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: BK Hacken 3–0 Gais

BK Hacken beat Gais 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Bravida Arena in Göteborg.