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Bistrica vs Brežice — 2. SNL 2019

Bistrica
Bistrica
Preview
16:00
Brežice
Brežice
9/13/20262. SNL2. SNL · Round 6
58%
Bistrica
model favours
58%22%20%

Bistrica and Brežice have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Bistrica58%
×Draw22%
Brežice20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bistrica
1.90
Brežice
1.02

Bistrica creates 86% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 37 away

creates per match

Bistrica
1.93
Brežice
0.86

allows per match

Bistrica
1.18
Brežice
1.86

finishing

Bistrica+0.00on par
Brežice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bistrica ↓

Brežice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bistrica or draw
80%
Bistrica or Brežice
78%
Draw or Brežice
42%

Winning margin

Bistrica wins by 2+
34%
Brežice wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bistrica 1+ goals
85%
Bistrica 2+ goals
56%
Bistrica 3+ goals
29%
Brežice 1+ goals
64%
Brežice 2+ goals
27%
Brežice 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bistrica (draw refunded)
74%
Brežice (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bistrica at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Brežice away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bistrica attack 1.93 + Brežice defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.90

Brežice attack 0.86 + Bistrica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bistrica scores more
58%
level
22%
Brežice scores more
20%

Bistrica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bistrica
LWWLL
Brežice
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bistrica vs Brežice — Match Preview

Bistrica face Brežice on September 13, 2026 in this 2. SNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.