Birmingham 0–2 Wolves: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wolves

S. Ojo 84'

D. Edwards 11'

10/31/2015

Championship · Round 14St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Birmingham32%

×Draw26%

Wolves42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.44

Birmingham

1.23

Wolves

1.44

Wolves creates 17% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 29 away

1.25

creates per match

1.59

1.29

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Wolves

1.59

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Wolves

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

58%

Birmingham or Wolves

74%

Draw or Wolves

68%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

14%

Wolves wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

71%

Birmingham 2+ goals

35%

Birmingham 3+ goals

13%

Wolves 1+ goals

76%

Wolves 2+ goals

42%

Wolves 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

43%

Wolves (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.21 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Wolves defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wolves attack 1.59 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Birmingham scores more

32%

level

26%

Wolves scores more

42%

Wolves at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Ojo

Wolves · F

7.6

Match Events

11'

D. Edwards

58'

Kevin McDonald

58'

D. Cotterill← M. Kieftenbeld

67'

Jon Toral← J. Maghoma

74'

S. Ojo← N. Byrne

79'

N. Brock-Madsen← D. Davis

80'

G. Holt← B. Afobe

84'

S. Ojo↳ J. Henry

89'

M. Doherty← J. Henry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWolves

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots13

8Corners6

0Fouls0

Shots

15Total Shots13

1On Target6

6Off Target6

8Blocked1

5Inside Box9

10Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

396Total Passes337

278Accurate Passes205

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

0Fouls0

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2