Birmingham 2–2 Swansea: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Swansea

T. Deeney 89'

S. Hogan 12'

M. Grimes 45+2'

O. Ntcham 30'

11/8/2022

Championship · Round 9St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 34+ matches

Birmingham49%

×Draw26%

Swansea26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.03

Birmingham

1.52

Swansea

1.03

Birmingham creates 48% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 58 away

1.59

creates per match

1.08

0.98

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Birmingham

1.59

Swansea

1.08

allows per match

Birmingham

0.98

Swansea

1.46

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par

Swansea-0.05on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

74%

Birmingham or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

51%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

25%

Swansea wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

45%

Birmingham 3+ goals

20%

Swansea 1+ goals

64%

Swansea 2+ goals

28%

Swansea 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

65%

Swansea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.98 · 34 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.59 + Swansea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

Swansea attack 1.08 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Birmingham scores more

49%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

26%

Birmingham at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Grimes

Swansea · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

S. Hogan↳ M. Emmanuel

15'

Troy Deeney

15'

Ryan Manning

30'

O. Ntcham

45+2'

M. Grimes↳ J. Latibeaudiere

48'

51'

53'

62'

67'

72'

M. Sorinola← N. Wood-Gordon

77'

Jay Fulton

77'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Chong

85'

M. Obafemi← O. Ntcham

88'

J. James← M. Colin

89'

T. Deeney↳ D. Sanderson

90+4'

Dion Sanderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamSwansea

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots8

12Corners1

12Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target3

5Off Target5

8Blocked0

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

285Total Passes523

223Accurate Passes464

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3