Birmingham 1–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Swansea

S. Hogan 90+1' (pen)

4/2/2021

Championship · Round 39St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Birmingham48%

×Draw26%

Swansea26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

Birmingham

1.50

Swansea

1.03

Birmingham creates 46% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 58 away

1.55

creates per match

1.08

0.98

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Birmingham

1.55

Swansea

1.08

allows per match

Birmingham

0.98

Swansea

1.46

-0.09on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.09on par

Swansea-0.05on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

74%

Birmingham or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

52%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Swansea wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

44%

Birmingham 3+ goals

19%

Swansea 1+ goals

64%

Swansea 2+ goals

28%

Swansea 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

65%

Swansea (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 35 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.55 + Swansea defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Swansea attack 1.08 + Birmingham defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Birmingham scores more

48%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

26%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Roberts

Birmingham · D

7.6

Match Events

45'

Steve Seddon

46'

G. Friend← S. Seddon

68'

Jon Toral← A. Halilović

70'

Y. Dhanda← K. Smith

82'

S. Hogan← J. Leko

82'

S. Cosgrove← L. Jutkiewicz

88'

W. Routledge← J. Lowe

90'

R. Harper← G. Gardner

90+2'

M. Whittaker← K. Naughton

90+1'

S. HoganPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamSwansea

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots7

2Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots7

4On Target3

3Off Target0

3Blocked4

7Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

297Total Passes389

167Accurate Passes250

56%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides6