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Birmingham vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
15:00
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
3/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 36
Big match
43%
Birmingham
model favours
43%26%31%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham43%
×Draw26%
Sheffield Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.41
Sheffield Utd
1.15

Birmingham creates 23% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 42 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Sheffield Utd
1.31

allows per match

Birmingham
0.99
Sheffield Utd
1.19

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par
Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
69%
Birmingham or Sheffield Utd
74%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
57%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
20%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham 2+ goals
41%
Birmingham 3+ goals
17%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
68%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
32%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
58%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sheffield Utd attack 1.31 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Birmingham scores more
43%
level
26%
Sheffield Utd scores more
31%

Birmingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Sheffield Utd
Attack-heavy
47%Possession53%
71%Pass accuracy78%
12.4Shots13.3
1.29xGBiggest gap1.53
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamSheffield Utd

Head-to-head

8 previous meetings

1
Birmingham
4
Draws
3
Sheffield Utd
Avg goals: 2BTTS: 63%
1–10–31–21–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
Utd
WWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Sheffield Utd (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Sheffield Utd. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.