Birmingham 1–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Norwich

S. Hogan 50'

O. Hernández 90+3'

A. Omobamidele 63'

8/30/2022

Championship · Round 7St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw25%

Norwich27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.10

Birmingham

1.54

Norwich

1.10

Birmingham creates 40% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

1.62

creates per match

1.22

0.99

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Norwich

1.22

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Norwich

1.47

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Norwich+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

73%

Birmingham or Norwich

75%

Draw or Norwich

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Norwich wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

79%

Birmingham 2+ goals

45%

Birmingham 3+ goals

20%

Norwich 1+ goals

67%

Norwich 2+ goals

30%

Norwich 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

64%

Norwich (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Norwich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Norwich attack 1.22 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

25%

Norwich scores more

27%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Núñez

Norwich · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

11'

50'

52'

58'

O. Hernández← K. Dowell

58'

T. Pukki← D. Sinani

60'

H. Mejbri← S. Hogan

61'

Juninho Bacuna

63'

A. Omobamidele↳ G. Hanley

71'

Auston Trusty

71'

Troy Deeney

71'

Andrew Omobamidele

74'

Gabriel Sara← A. Ramsey

80'

Max Aarons

84'

A. Idah← J. Sargent

84'

T. Cantwell← S. Byram

88'

T. Campbell← J. Williams

88'

J. James← J. Bacuna

90+4'

Onel Hernández

90+3'

O. Hernández↳ T. Pukki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamNorwich

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots14

6Corners8

15Fouls5

Shots

9Total Shots14

2On Target5

3Off Target5

4Blocked4

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

34%Possession66%

276Total Passes543

195Accurate Passes462

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls5

4Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0