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Birmingham vs Millwall — Championship 2025

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
19:45
Millwall
Millwall
11/3/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 14
44%
Birmingham
model favours
44%24%32%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Birmingham44%
×Draw24%
Millwall32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.62
Millwall
1.34

Birmingham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.78
Millwall
1.39

allows per match

Birmingham
1.29
Millwall
1.46

finishing

Birmingham-0.61scores less
Millwall-0.26scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
68%
Birmingham or Millwall
76%
Draw or Millwall
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
22%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
80%
Birmingham 2+ goals
48%
Birmingham 3+ goals
22%
Millwall 1+ goals
74%
Millwall 2+ goals
39%
Millwall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
58%
Millwall (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.46 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Millwall defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.62

Millwall attack 1.39 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham scores more
44%
level
24%
Millwall scores more
32%

Birmingham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Millwall
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession45%
72%Pass accuracy69%
10.8ShotsBiggest gap12.1
1.29xG1.36
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamMillwall

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWDWW
Millwall
LDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Millwall (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Millwall. Match starts November 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.