Birmingham 2–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Huddersfield

P. Płacheta 45'

S. Hogan 5'

D. Ward 61'

8/5/2022

Championship · Round 2St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Birmingham48%

×Draw26%

Huddersfield26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.05

Birmingham

1.53

Huddersfield

1.05

Birmingham creates 46% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

1.11

0.99

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Huddersfield

1.11

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Huddersfield

1.44

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Huddersfield+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

74%

Birmingham or Huddersfield

74%

Draw or Huddersfield

52%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

25%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

45%

Birmingham 3+ goals

20%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

28%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

65%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Huddersfield defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Huddersfield attack 1.11 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Birmingham scores more

48%

level

26%

Huddersfield scores more

26%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Bacuna

Birmingham · M

7.9

Match Events

5'

21'

32'

45'

58'

61'

75'

75'

W. Boyle← R. Edmonds-Green

76'

D. Holmes← D. Ward

76'

J. Rhodes← F. Anjorin

82'

L. Jutkiewicz← S. Hogan

89'

G. Friend← P. Płacheta

89'

J. Koroma← J. Rudoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamHuddersfield

Overview

39%Possession61%

18Total Shots9

6Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target2

5Off Target2

7Blocked5

12Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

345Total Passes530

253Accurate Passes454

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5