Birmingham 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bristol City

D. Sanderson 75'

A. Trusty 43', 3'

10/8/2022

Championship · Round 14St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham48%

×Draw26%

Bristol City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Birmingham

1.48

Bristol City

1.02

Birmingham creates 45% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 60 away

1.62

creates per match

1.04

0.99

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Bristol City

1.04

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

Bristol City

1.33

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

Bristol City-0.06on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

74%

Birmingham or Bristol City

74%

Draw or Bristol City

52%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

19%

Bristol City 1+ goals

64%

Bristol City 2+ goals

27%

Bristol City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

65%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.33 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Bristol City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bristol City attack 1.04 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Birmingham scores more

48%

level

26%

Bristol City scores more

26%

Birmingham at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

A. Trusty

Birmingham · D

8.2

Match Events

3'

43'

45+1'

46'

46'

46'

A. Semenyo← T. Conway

52'

Dion Sanderson

63'

Alex Scott

65'

D. Kadji← H. Massengo

68'

Krystian Bielik

71'

J. James← G. Hall

73'

C. Pring← J. Dasilva

75'

D. Sanderson↳ T. Chong

77'

J. Bellingham← H. Mejbri

80'

Dylan Kadji

82'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Chong

82'

T. Deeney← S. Hogan

82'

J. Bacuna← K. Bielik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBristol

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots7

7Corners4

23Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots7

5On Target1

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

263Total Passes374

159Accurate Passes255

60%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

23Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2