Birmingham 3–0 Bristol City: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol City

G. Gardner 76'

S. Hogan 68'

R. McGree 14'

11/2/2021

Championship · Round 16St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw26%

Bristol City27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBristol City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Birmingham

1.48

Bristol City

1.04

Birmingham creates 42% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

1.62

creates per match

1.10

0.97

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Bristol City

1.10

allows per match

Birmingham

0.97

Bristol City

1.34

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par

Bristol City-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Bristol City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

73%

Birmingham or Bristol City

74%

Draw or Bristol City

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

24%

Bristol City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

19%

Bristol City 1+ goals

65%

Bristol City 2+ goals

28%

Bristol City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

64%

Bristol City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Bristol City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Bristol City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

Bristol City attack 1.10 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

26%

Bristol City scores more

27%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

T. Deeney

Birmingham · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

R. McGree↳ T. Deeney

46'

H. Dean← D. Sanderson

53'

H. Massengo← M. James

68'

S. Hogan↳ T. Deeney

73'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney

76'

G. Gardner↳ J. Graham

82'

82'

82'

85'

87'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBristol

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots9

6Corners2

12Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots9

3On Target1

7Off Target7

4Blocked1

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

266Total Passes408

148Accurate Passes282

56%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1