Barki Tajik 3–2 Istaravshan: Result & Stats

Barki Tajik

FT

3 – 2

Istaravshan

4/21/2012

Vysshaya Liga · Round 3Stadion Avtomobilist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Barki Tajik50%

×Draw27%

Istaravshan23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barki TajikExpected goals in this matchIstaravshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.89

Barki Tajik

1.45

Istaravshan

0.89

Barki Tajik creates 63% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 21 away

0.90

creates per match

0.67

1.10

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Barki Tajik

0.90

Istaravshan

0.67

allows per match

Barki Tajik

1.10

Istaravshan

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barki Tajik ↓

Istaravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Barki Tajik or draw

77%

Barki Tajik or Istaravshan

73%

Draw or Istaravshan

50%

Winning margin

Barki Tajik wins by 2+

25%

Istaravshan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Barki Tajik 1+ goals

77%

Barki Tajik 2+ goals

42%

Barki Tajik 3+ goals

18%

Istaravshan 1+ goals

59%

Istaravshan 2+ goals

22%

Istaravshan 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Barki Tajik (draw refunded)

68%

Istaravshan (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barki Tajik at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barki Tajik attack 0.90 + Istaravshan defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Istaravshan attack 0.67 + Barki Tajik defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barki Tajik scores more

50%

level

27%

Istaravshan scores more

23%

Barki Tajik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barki Tajik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff