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H&W Welders vs Institute — League #407 2026

H&W Welders
H&W Welders
FT
1 – 2
Institute
Institute
4/17/2018League #407League #407 · Promotion Round - 1Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

H&W Welders43%
×Draw21%
Institute36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

H&W Welders
2.03
Institute
1.83

H&W Welders creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

H&W Welders
2.50
Institute
2.33

allows per match

H&W Welders
1.33
Institute
1.56

finishing

H&W Welders+0.00on par
Institute+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

H&W Welders ↓

Institute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

H&W Welders or draw
64%
H&W Welders or Institute
79%
Draw or Institute
57%

Winning margin

H&W Welders wins by 2+
24%
Institute wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

H&W Welders 1+ goals
87%
H&W Welders 2+ goals
60%
H&W Welders 3+ goals
33%
Institute 1+ goals
84%
Institute 2+ goals
54%
Institute 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

H&W Welders (draw refunded)
55%
Institute (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

H&W Welders at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

Institute away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

H&W Welders attack 2.50 + Institute defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.03

Institute attack 2.33 + H&W Welders defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

H&W Welders scores more
43%
level
21%
Institute scores more
36%

H&W Welders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "H&W Welders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: H&W Welders 1–2 Institute

Institute beat H&W Welders 2-1 in League #407 on April 17, 2018.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Drumahoe.