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Biolog vs Druzhba — Cup 2019

Biolog
Biolog
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Druzhba
Druzhba
8/19/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Biolog55%
×Draw21%
Druzhba24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
2.10
Druzhba
1.31

Biolog creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Biolog
2.00
Druzhba
0.80

allows per match

Biolog
1.83
Druzhba
2.20

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Druzhba+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Druzhba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
76%
Biolog or Druzhba
79%
Draw or Druzhba
45%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
33%
Druzhba wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
88%
Biolog 2+ goals
62%
Biolog 3+ goals
35%
Druzhba 1+ goals
73%
Druzhba 2+ goals
38%
Druzhba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
70%
Druzhba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Druzhba away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 2.00 + Druzhba defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.10

Druzhba attack 0.80 + Biolog defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Biolog scores more
55%
level
21%
Druzhba scores more
24%

Biolog at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Biolog 3–0 Druzhba

Biolog beat Druzhba 3-0 in Cup on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.