Binh Duong 1–0 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | V.League 1

Binh Duong

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sai Gon

5/10/2019

V.League 1 · Round 9Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Binh Duong48%

×Draw24%

Sai Gon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh DuongExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.22

Binh Duong

1.66

Sai Gon

1.22

Binh Duong creates 36% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 42 away

1.45

creates per match

1.12

1.31

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Binh Duong

1.45

Sai Gon

1.12

allows per match

Binh Duong

1.31

Sai Gon

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Sai Gon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw

72%

Binh Duong or Sai Gon

76%

Draw or Sai Gon

52%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+

25%

Sai Gon wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals

81%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

49%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

23%

Sai Gon 1+ goals

70%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

34%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

63%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.86 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Sai Gon defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.66

Sai Gon attack 1.12 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Binh Duong scores more

48%

level

24%

Sai Gon scores more

28%

Binh Duong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff