Binh Duong 1–1 Quang Nam: Result & Stats

Binh Duong

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Quang Nam

7/21/2019

V.League 1 · Round 17Sân vận động Gò Đậu (Go Dau Stadium) (Thủ Dầu Một (Thu Dau Mot))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Binh Duong44%

×Draw24%

Quang Nam32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Binh DuongExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.33

Binh Duong

1.61

Quang Nam

1.33

Binh Duong creates 21% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 49 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

1.31

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Binh Duong

1.45

Quang Nam

1.35

allows per match

Binh Duong

1.31

Quang Nam

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw

68%

Binh Duong or Quang Nam

76%

Draw or Quang Nam

56%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+

22%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals

80%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

48%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

22%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

74%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

38%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

58%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Quang Nam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Quang Nam attack 1.35 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Binh Duong scores more

44%

level

24%

Quang Nam scores more

32%

Binh Duong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff