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Binh Duong vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh — V.League 1 2019

Binh Duong
Binh Duong
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
2/28/2024V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 11Sân vận động Gò Đậu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Binh Duong44%
×Draw27%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Binh Duong
1.38
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.06

Binh Duong creates 30% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 77 away

creates per match

Binh Duong
1.45
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
0.82

allows per match

Binh Duong
1.31
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.31

finishing

Binh Duong+0.00on par
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Binh Duong ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Binh Duong or draw
71%
Binh Duong or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
73%
Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
56%

Winning margin

Binh Duong wins by 2+
21%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Binh Duong 1+ goals
75%
Binh Duong 2+ goals
40%
Binh Duong 3+ goals
16%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
65%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
29%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Binh Duong (draw refunded)
60%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Binh Duong at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 86 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Binh Duong attack 1.45 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 0.82 + Binh Duong defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Binh Duong scores more
44%
level
27%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
29%

Binh Duong at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Binh Duong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 1: Binh Duong 1–0 Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Binh Duong beat Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1-0 in V.League 1 on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Sân vận động Gò Đậu in Thu Dau Mot.